When Michael Busch, the 25‑year‑old leadoff first baseman for the Chicago Cubs, steps up to the plate at Game 5 of the NLDSAmerican Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the stakes are crystal clear: win and move on to the National League Championship Series, lose and the season ends.
The series is tied 2‑2 after a roller‑coaster four‑game stretch that saw a 3‑3 tie, a 4‑1 Cubs win, and a 3‑0 shutout by Chicago in Milwaukee. Tonight’s showdown, slated for 8:08 p.m. ET on October 11, 2023, pits the Brewers’ home‑field advantage against a Cubs bullpen that’s trying to reverse the tide.
Series Overview and What’s on the Line
The Milwaukee Brewers clinched the National League’s best regular‑season record at 92‑70, earning a 52‑29 mark at American Family Field. That edge has translated into a 1.5‑run line favoring Milwaukee in the betting markets.
Meanwhile, the Cubs entered the postseason as a Wild Card team (83‑79) and have rallied to force a decisive game. A win sends them to the NLCS where they could meet the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Los Los Angeles Dodgers, a clash set for October 15 at Chase Field in Phoenix.
Pitching Matchups: Left‑Handed Opener vs. Rookie Power
The Cubs plan to flip the script with left‑handed reliever Drew Pomeranz as the opener. At 34, Pomeranz brings veteran poise and a track record of late‑innings effectiveness. He may hand the ball to right‑handers Shota Imanaga (29) and Colin Rea (33) if the early innings get messy.
Milwaukee’s rotation leans on 23‑year‑old rookie Jacob Misiorowski as the bulk‑inning arm. He’s been teaming with a versatile bullpen overseen by manager Craig Counsell, who returned to helm the Brewers after a brief hiatus.
The Brewers also boast a shutdown closer in Devin Williams (29) — 33 saves last season — and a high‑leverage setup man Aaron Ashby (25). On the Cubs side, closer Manuel Rodríguez (26) converted 23 of 27 save chances, ready for a potential high‑pressure ninth.
Batting Threats: Busch’s Home‑Run Surge and Chourio’s Tenacity
Busch has turned into October’s breakout story. He’s already belted four postseason homers, including a leadoff blast in Game 4 that set the tone for Chicago’s 3‑0 win. In the regular season’s final 17 games he posted a .322 average with eight homers, 19 hits in 59 at‑bats, and 14 RBIs. That hot streak makes him a prime candidate for another big swing against a Brewers staff likely to be piecing together innings with younger arms.
Across the diamond, Jackson Chourio, the 20‑year‑old Brewers center fielder, has been battling a tight hamstring but has still reached base in all seven of his postseason appearances. His speed and plate discipline could be a quietly decisive factor, especially if Milwaukee leans on contact hitting to spark a rally.
Betting Angles: Moneyline, Total Runs, and Props
DraftKings’ odds as of game time list the Brewers at -140 on the moneyline and the Cubs at +122. The run line sits at Cubs +1.5 (-167) vs. Brewers -1.5 (+135). The over/under is set at 7.5 runs, with both sides at -110.
Analysts from SportsHandle recommend three core wagers. First, back the Brewers on the moneyline — Milwaukee’s 52‑29 home record is hard to ignore. Second, take the under 7.5 runs; the series has been a pitcher’s duel, with three of the first four games seeing three runs or fewer. Third, consider a prop on Busch to hit a homer at +200, reflecting his four postseason long balls and his leadoff spot against a rookie‑heavy Milwaukee staff.
Additional prop ideas include a "2+ hits, runs, and RBI" combo for Busch (+106) and a hit wager on Chourio at -150, banking on his recent consistency despite the hamstring issue.
What the Win Means for the NLCS
Should the Brewers pull through, they’ll march to a NLCS showdown against either the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Los Angeles Dodgers, a series slated to kick off on October 15 at Chase Field. A Cubs victory would set up a classic Midwest clash with the Dodgers, who have already secured the NL West.
Beyond the immediate bragging rights, the outcome could shape free‑agent perceptions. A deep playoff run often spikes a player’s market value, especially for breakout stars like Busch, whose performance could land him a multi‑year extension or a lucrative deal elsewhere.
Either way, the night promises late‑night drama, a handful of fireworks, and, for the bettors, a chance to lock in a smart wager before the final out.
Key Facts
- Game 5 kicks off at 8:08 p.m. ET on October 11, 2023.
- Milwaukee holds a 52‑29 record at American Family Field.
- Michael Busch has four postseason homers, including a leadoff shot in Game 4.
- Betting line: Brewers -140, Cubs +122; total 7.5 runs.
- Winner faces the Dodgers or Diamondbacks in the NLCS beginning Oct 15.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this game affect the Cubs’ chances of reaching the NLCS?
A win would give Chicago a 2‑1 series lead and a one‑game cushion in a best‑of‑five format, dramatically improving their odds of advancing. It also puts their breakout star Michael Busch in a position to continue his power surge against a Milwaukee staff that may be forced to rely on less‑experienced arms.
What led to the Brewers being favored on the moneyline?
Milwaukee’s 52‑29 home record during the regular season, combined with a solid bullpen anchored by Devin Williams and Aaron Ashby, gives them a statistical edge. The betting market reflects that home‑field advantage and the team’s consistency in close games.
Why is the under 7.5 runs a compelling wager?
The first four games of the series produced three or fewer runs in three of those contests, highlighting the dominance of the pitchers. Both clubs have elite relievers who thrive in high‑leverage, low‑run environments, making a sub‑8‑run total likely.
What are experts saying about Michael Busch’s home‑run prop?
Analysts note Busch’s four postseason homers and his leadoff spot make him a prime target against a Milwaukee rotation that may feature rookie Jacob Misiorowski. His .292 postseason average and recent regular‑season power surge justify the +200 odds.
Who could the winner face in the NLCS?
If Milwaukee advances, they’ll meet the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Los Angeles Dodgers, depending on which National League West team wins their series. A Cubs victory would set up a classic Midwest clash with the Dodgers, who have already secured the NL West title.
